At Apple’s 2024 Worldwide Developer Conference, I sat in the baking sun outside the company’s glass spaceship-like headquarters in Cupertino while Craig Federighi described the marvelous capabilities of Apple Intelligence. He promised that your iPhone would be able to synthesize your interactions with public data to deliver practical answers to questions like “What time should I leave to pick up Julian?” Your phone would know that Julian is your nephew who is visiting you in Albuquerque on the 6:10 Delta flight, and how the current traffic affects when you should depart for the airport. These examples excited the crowd.
But this and other functionality still isn’t available, and there’s no sign of Apple doing anything about it. Meanwhile, Google and Microsoft continue to add advanced AI features to their respective platforms.
We’re fast approaching a breaking point here. If Cupertino doesn’t recenter its attention on Apple Intelligence very soon (WWDC seems like an obvious time to start) and make tangible progress, I don’t think it will ever be a true competitor in the AI space. Consequentially, I don’t think consumers will continue to pay for technology with simply average AI.
Apple Intelligence Stays Behind the Curtain
Siri is a major entry point for AI features on Apple devices, so last year, I asked with high expectations: Will Apple’s AI Finally Make Siri Smart?
Now, we know that the answer is “not this year.” Instead, we got a few updates, such as the ability to type to Siri, better voice recognition, continued context, a full-screen glowing effect, and integrated Apple product knowledge. For me, the best among these is the continued conversational context, which means Siri remembers all the previous things you say or type during an interaction. Other capabilities also arrived across Apple’s OSes, but they too are underwhelming. They allow you to generate emoji and get writing assistance, for example.
(Credit: Angela Moscaritolo)
These updates are a far cry from the vision Apple outlined at WWDC. I applaud the development of the Private Cloud Compute feature since a secure environment for AI is vital, but Apple Intelligence still needs to have compelling features for people to care.
On that note, the company has since hinted that the truly smarter AI-powered Siri won’t be arriving until 2026. That’s two years after Copilot arrived on Microsoft’s Windows 11 and a year after Gemini showed up on Google’s Android. Two years is a long time to be behind on AI, and potentially an insurmountable hurdle.
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Copilot and Gemini are far more advanced at this point. The AI assistants can see what’s on your screen and provide information, analysis, and actions based on it. They can also organize, summarize, and draft responses for your emails, generate photorealistic images (Apple’s Image Playground can create only cartoon-like images), and translate any playing audio or video on your device in real-time. Though Apple promises this kind of intelligence, it’s not nearly on the same level.
According to reports, Apple will apparently focus on its Solarium interface update at WWDC instead of announcing development efforts for Apple Intelligence. Its OSes already benefit from decades of refinements and deep familiarity among users, so I’m not really sure what the point is in light of its AI shortcomings.
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Sales Aren’t Falling Yet, But That Could Change Soon
For all its AI woes, Apple is still a leader among phone vendors. Yes, iPhone sales decreased 5% over the last quarter, and market share edged down from 19% to 18% among all phone vendors. But Samsung’s market share also slipped, from 20% to 19%. Both of these declines could just be due to market saturation. People might just be unwilling to spend on a new phone because of tariffs. Restrictions on iPhone sales in China, where overall phone sales actually grew, are also likely affecting Apple’s numbers. On the desktop OS side, the market share of macOS computers continues to rise at the expense of Windows PC manufacturers, though it’s still far behind Dell, Lenovo, and HP.
Whether we just aren’t far enough into the era of AI for sales figures to reflect Apple’s AI failings remains unclear, but the industry is shifting fast. And Apple is actually in a good position hardware-wise; all its latest devices have chips capable of local AI processing. Not all PCs have NPUs, and not all Android phones have the power to run on-device AI features. That could be Apple’s saving grace if only the software features catch up.
When Will Apple Get AI Right?
AI has existed a lot longer than you might realize. Machine learning and neural networks have been around for decades, dating all the way back to the ‘50s and gathering steam in the ’90s, aughts, and teens. Progress in AI takes time, too—a lot of time. It took until just a couple of years ago to make the jump to arrive at the kind of Generative Pre-trained Transformer technology that made ChatGPT seem so revolutionary.
Apple is a big company with massive resources and top tech minds. It could absolutely become competitive, but it needs to commit to this goal with a sense of urgency to have a chance to catch Google and Microsoft and save its sales numbers in the long run. Otherwise, it might not ever be able to meet consumers’ expectations and excitement, and thus risks missing out on the defining technology of this decade.
About Michael Muchmore
Lead Software Analyst
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